The death of the Russian IL-20. Speculation and Reality

                     The death of the Russian IL-20. Speculation and Reality

                             Facts, comments, conclusions, recommendations

First the facts

September 18, 2018 0:49 at https://www.bbc.com/russian/45556354:

"On September 17, at about 23:00 Moscow time, when returning to the Khmeimim airbase over the Mediterranean, 35 kilometers off the coast of Syria, the connection with the crew of the Russian Il-20 aircraft was lost," the Russian Defense Ministry reported.

On board the aircraft of electronic intelligence were 15 military men (in the first report of the Ministry of Defense, it was about 14 military). Their fate is unknown. In the waters of Latakia is conducted a search and rescue operation, it follows from the message.

The Russian Defense Ministry claims that the IL-20 disappeared from radar during the attack of four Israeli F-16 fighters against Syrian targets in the province of Latakia.

"At the same time, Russian radar controls the airspace were recorded missile launches from the French frigate Auvergne in the area," the Russian military said.

September 18, 2018 1:47 on https://ria.ru/syria/20180918/1528758545.html#article_item_1528758620  provided more detailed information from the words of the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry Igor Konashenkov

"The IL-20 VKS was shot down by Syrian air defense weapons during Israeli air strikes against Latakia targets. Killed 15 military men.

September 18, 2018 https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-45558934  reports:

The Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft was shot down by Syrian air defense forces; it was fired by Israeli planes that attacked the province of Latakia. This was stated by the Ministry of Defense of Russia, warning about the right to an adequate response to "hostile actions". In turn, the Israeli military laid the blame on the army of Bashar al-Assad, which led "indiscriminate" fire.

"Hiding behind a Russian plane, Israeli pilots put it under fire from Syria's air defenses. As a result, the IL-20, which has an effective reflective surface more than the F-16, was shot down by a S-200 missile," said Defense Minister Igor Konashenkov .

The site lists the Israeli Air Force strikes on Syrian territory on September 17, 2018, attached to this statement by Igor Konashenkov, which shows the flight paths of the aircraft and the time of the main events according to the Russian Defense Ministry. The time of the defeat of the IL-20 is indicated at 22:03, and the location is between Latakia and Khoimimim airport, where the IL-20 was going to land.

The presented version and conclusions about Israel's guilt in the tragedy and death of 15 Russian servicemen were confirmed by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and then by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who warned that in response to Israel's "hostile actions" against it, measures of "adequate actions" could be taken.

September 18, 2018 http://www.9tv.co.il/news/2018/09/20/262112.html  - The Russian military police have arrested all the Syrians involved in the C-200 launch.

September 18, 2018 http://9tv.co.il/news/2018/09/18/262087.html  - Downed Il caused a wave of anti-Semitism in the "runet" of readers and officials at various levels in Russia and abroad.

September 19, 2018 in the wake of the incident with the Russian IL-20 shot down in Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the situation by telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

September 20, 2018 in order to prove Israel's innocence of the loss of the Il-20 and the Russian military, Israel sent a delegation of military experts to Russia led by the Commander-in-Chief of the Israeli Air Force Amikam Norkin with a 40-page report of the documented process of the entire operation on September 17, 2018. with an indication of the exact time of its execution from the departure of the aircraft for the operation until they return to the base.

An Israeli military delegation led by Israeli Air Force Commander Lieutenant-General Amikam Norkin held a series of meetings in Moscow with the command of the Russian Air Force, at which a report was presented on the situation in which the Russian Il-20 was shot down by Syrian air defenses, and the results of the investigation The incident carried out by the Israeli military.

Neither Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu nor Russian President Vladimir Putin condescended to meet with the Commander-in-Chief of the Israeli Air Force and did not participate in the discussion of the data presented. Russia rejected the findings of the Israeli Air Force report on the death of the IL-20 in the Syrian sky and demanded that Jerusalem conduct a new investigation.

September 21, 2018  http://www.tv.co.il/news/2018/09/21/262163.html  reports that the Russian edition has brought the opinion of the Israeli military expert, former correspondent of the 9th ITV channel Andrei Kozhinov. Kozhinov noted the lack of need for the F-16 Israeli Air Force to hide behind a Russian plane.

"Firstly, without any cover, the Israelis over the past 18 months have inflicted over 200 blows on Syria. Secondly, technically the F-16 could not hide behind the slow-moving IL-20. Their speed at an angle of attack of at least three times the speed of the Russian aircraft, "- quotes the edition of the expert.

Kozhinov with reference to the official statements of the Russian and Israeli military noted a sufficient number of inconsistencies in such parameters as height, time, distance.

"By the time Syrian air defenses worked, the F-16s had already returned to Israeli airspace. The fighters had left the operational shelling zone before the Russian plane entered," Kozhinov emphasized. He focused on the interlocutor's attention to the fact that the radar operator cannot be confused with the F-16 and IL-20.

On September 23, 2018, the Ministry of Defense of Russia submitted a report on the IL-20 by the international media, set out below in italic italics, with bracketed serial numbers of comments, set out by the author of this article, or excerpts from the references (sources).

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for minutes restored the picture of the death of the IL-20 in Syria on September 17: https://www.1tv.ru/news/2018-09-23/352791-minoborony_rf_po_minutam_vosstanovilo_kartinu_gibeli_il_20_v_sirii_17_sentyabrya

"On the evening of September 17, the Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft from 20 hours 31 minutes performed a special task to monitor the situation in the Idlib de-escalation zone. On board were 15 Russian troops. During this period of time (1), a group of four F-16 fighters flew out from the territory of Israel to deliver a surprise attack on industrial facilities in the Syrian Arab Republic. The flight route of the Israeli fighters is displayed on the screen. F-16 fighters, flying over the neutral waters of the Mediterranean, occupied a patrol area 90 kilometers west of the city of Lattakia (2).

At 21:39, a representative of the Israeli Air Force commander in the military rank of colonel notified the command of the Russian group of troops in Syria about the impending attack on targets on the deconflicting channel. The idea was that in the next few minutes Israel would strike at facilities located in northern Syria (3). One minute later, at 21:40, four Israeli F-16 aircraft struck the GBU-39 guided bombs at industrial sites in the province of Lattakia (4).

Thus, the Israeli side, in violation of the existing agreements, notified the Russian group of its operation not in advance, but simultaneously with the start of the strikes. These actions are in direct violation of the 2015 Russian-Israeli agreements to prevent incidents between our armed forces in the Syrian sector, reached as part of the joint working group. The position of the aircraft at the time of impact, you can see on the screen display system information on air traffic.

I would like to point out again that during the negotiations on the deconflicting line, a representative of the Israeli Air Force headquarters said that the targets on which it is planned to strike Israeli aircraft are located in northern Syria. The conversation was conducted in Russian. The Russian Ministry of Defense has an audio recording of this conversation. The commander of the IL-20, located in the north of Syria, received instructions to leave the area of the mission to the south and return to the base.

As you see on the map, the attacks of the Israeli Air Force were not inflicted in the northern part of the Syrian Arab Republic, but in the region of Latakia, which is its western province. And the city of Latakia itself is located on the west coast of the country. Misleading an Israeli officer about the area of fighter strikes did not allow the Russian IL-20 to be launched to a safe area.

In addition, the location of the Israeli F-16 (5) was not indicated.

At 21:51, Syrian anti-aircraft defenses began to repel an Israeli attack and began launching anti-aircraft missiles (6). After the strike, Israeli planes again took up a zone of duty in the air 70 km west of the coast of Syria, putting radio-electronic interference and, probably, preparing to deliver a second strike (7).

At 21:59 one of the Israeli planes began a maneuver in the direction of the coast of Syria, moving closer to the IL-20 that made the landing approach (7). This was perceived by the calculations of the Syrian air defense for a new attack by Israeli aircraft. The Israeli pilot could not help but realize that the effective reflecting surface of the IL-20 aircraft significantly exceeds the similar surface of the F-16, and it is the Russian aircraft that will be the preferred target for an anti-aircraft missile (8).

The Israelis also knew that in the Armed Forces of Russia and Syria different systems of "one's own - someone's" identification were used, and the Syrian radar stations could identify the IL-20 as a group target of Israeli fighters. During this period, the Il-20 plane, which turned around for landing at the Khmeymim airfield, turned out to be in the direction of the Syrian air defense weapons on Israeli aircraft. I emphasize that, observing the Russian Il-20, the Israeli fighters hid behind them from anti-aircraft missiles (9), continuing to maneuver in the area.

At 22:03, a Syrian anti-aircraft missile hit a larger and near target - the IL-20. The crew commander reported on the fire on board and the start of an emergency descent. At 22:07, the mark of the Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft disappeared from the radar screens. At the same time, Israeli aircraft did not go into their airspace, but remained in the same area and continued to be on air duty until 22:40.

At 22:29, the duty officer of the command of the Russian group in Syria brought an Israeli officer at the command post of the Air Force that the Russian IL-20 plane was in distress: "We demand to divert your funds from the area, as we use rescue equipment." An Israeli officer in the rank of lieutenant replied: "Received information, I will bring to command." At 22:40 the F-16 fighters left the zone. After that, only at 22:53, that is, 50 minutes after a Russian IL-20 missile hit, the operational duty officer of the Israeli Air Force command center, with the rank of colonel, contacted and said: "Your information about the IL-20 disaster has been received. We cleared the zone. If help is needed, we are ready to help. "

The objective data presented indicate that the actions of Israeli fighter pilots, which led to the death of 15 Russian servicemen, speak either of their lack of professionalism, or at least of criminal negligence. Therefore, we believe that the blame for the tragedy with the Russian Il-20 lies entirely on the Air Force of Israel and those who made the decision on this kind of activity!

I emphasize that the actions of the Israeli Air Force fighters on the evening of September 17 were carried out in the area of the landing approach to the Khmeimim airfield, not only military but also civilian passenger aircraft. Thus, Israeli fighters created a direct threat to any passenger and transport aircraft that could be there at that time and become victims of the adventurism of the Israeli military (10).

At present, a search operation is being carried out at the site of the fall of the Russian Il-20 aircraft, 27 kilometers west of the port of Banias, to retrieve the bodies of the dead and the wreckage of the aircraft from the water (11).

Comments by the author

1. Departure time is determined in hours and minutes, and not in periods calculated in years, months, weeks, days).

2. The patrol route is not displayed on the screen and the purpose of the patrol is not clear if they flew to bomb the objects and return without loss.

3. If earlier they had to bomb near Damascus, located closer to the southern border, then Latakia, of course, is much more north, and the planes flew to the north of Syria, and there are objects both in the western and eastern territories.

4. The Israelis warned that in the next few minutes they would launch an attack on the objects and, a minute later, they began it, making sure that there were no planes in the attack zone. Little time was given for what? To launch the C-400 and C-200 radars that missed the appearance of Israeli fighters and the flight of cruise missiles launched by a French frigate? This minute was enough to frighten the commander of the IL-20, who worked in the Itlib area and recommend him, just in case, to return to the base, keeping to the south. And why not lead him, controlling the situation? And why was it necessary to stop work? Could it really be that guided bombs intended for weapons depots in the Latakia region could "overshoot" and damage the aircraft flying in the Itlib area?

5. What are radars for? Or is it in case of sleeping radars and their operators?

6. What kind of reflection of the Israeli attack can there be, 11 minutes after the launch of the missiles at the object, if a few minutes later, as soon as the dust settled, the pilots reported on the destruction of the object and returning without loss. IL - 20 at this time somewhere flew at an altitude of 5000 meters, not yet landing. Before the fatal hit of a stray Syrian air defense missile, if you believe the data of the Russian Ministry of Defense, it was 12 minutes.

 7. Why is the diagram not marked "place of duty", where they had to wait for something, if the result was already known? What was the point of the Israeli pilot to take risks after completing the mission or to substitute the IL-20 if the agreement with Russia set a goal to avoid losses on each side? How did the Israeli pilots manage to this case, 200 times attacking Iranian objects without the support of any foreign aircraft? See http://newsru.co.il/mideast/02dec2017/syria_il_101.html

Watch the end on http://anatoly.sheidin.com/294-the-death-of-the-russian-il-20-speculation-and.html)